I am writting the article I would love to read and this is a bad sign. My skills as a political analist are poor. But let’s go and see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Massa’s struggle is an impossible task from the beginning: position himself second in a race of three, when he is the sole candidate that has no executive chair, with the gargantuan budget it comes with it. In Argentina this criminal practice is tolerated without further ado. And by reaching a second place he could dream with the presidential seat, even when he has a little chance. Sergio Massa’s political future would have been better with an economic crisis -and we are always on the verge of having one-, or if Cristina Kirchner would have played more decidedly in favor of Mauricio Macri, the other opposing candidate. In Argentina, the peronist caudillo usually tackles it’s comrades possibilities if that means staying as the opposing leader, instead of being second to a subaltern.
Daniel Scioli benefits greatly of this mild economic scene, and he reportedly supports the judiciary nightmares of Cristina in order to prevent her from betray him with Mauricio Macri. As Sergio Massa is a hated traitor of Cristina’s movement she will never endorse him at all.
Nisman’s accusation early this year played a key role in Massa’s dismay: the accusation against Cristina Kirchner polarized the political table and thirds were out. Nisman’s murder sealed Massa’s fate and Cristina had no chance to flirt with Mauricio Macri as her judiciary future was a real danger.
It gives me the shivers when I think that Scioli and Milani are the main beneficiaries of Nisman’s assassination.
The only card Sergio Massa has ever had in this game is an alliance with
the opposition Macri. Key is how and when to play it. To soon and he will be weak, to late and he will be useless, a parody of a powerful man.
Scioli is not trying to erode Massa as he was in the past: if he succeeds to early the opposing votes will go towards Macri. The only way Daniel Scioli can dream of being president of a country that wants a change is if that majority plays divided.
Sergio Massa wants to play equal with his opponents, but the reality is that he’s only chance is to support Macri’s presidential race by running as governor candidate for the of Buenos Aires province. Sergio Massa remains strong in this huge territory which contributes 35% of Argentines votes.
Instead, Francisco de Narváez convinced Sergio Massa to be his governor candidate in Buenos Aires province. He was irresistible as he could finance his own candidacy, and that was a major issue for Sergio Massa. This deal shuts the possibility to remain safe at Buenos Aires and opens the door of a new betrayal: Francisco de Narváez , alias “El Colorado” the red haired, at this moment, is known to be in talks with Emilio Monzó, member of Mauricio Macri’s PRO to run a combined formula in next election. If he succeeds, he will own all of Sergio Massa structure and Sergio Massa will be just an empty tag.
We are at the final stage of this process, when many opportunities are gone.
The next June 10th expires the prescribed time to subscribe alliances on August elections. Ten days later is the final expiration on every candidacies subscription.
Everything is imminent.
There is another “tempo” that Massa and Macri must handle: The longer they show their alliance, Cristina Kirchner will incorporate more candidacies on Daniel Scioli lists, and this weakens him.
There is a rudiment of this gruesome game that amuses me: none of the leading candidates has defined its veep yet. Scioli might present a veep from La Campora -an organization that responds directly to Cristina Kirchner-, with all that that means.
Mauricio Macri might show a veep candidate from his peronist allies, or from the Radical Party. The Radicals is a centenary party in Argentina, centrists and far away from being radical in any aspect at all. Beauties of Argentina’s policies.
And from Massa… well, we can only hope for Sergio Massa survival.